The headline from Friday’s New Sachs/Mason-Dixon (S/M-D) Poll held some bad news for Barack Obama in what it said, but the worse news was in what it didn’t say. Oh S/M-D used the obligatory “happy face” language like “tough hard-fought presidential race”, but the data just doesn’t support that claim.
The report says Obama is losing 47/44, which for an incumbent with consistently under 50% approval ratings would be troublesome enough, but the rest of the numbers offer little comfort to Obama.
S/M-D says Obama is up 47/41 among women and 49/42 with voters under 50 years of age. Regardless of what these numbers look like, they are harbingers of bad things to come Obama’s way in November. In 2010 the total voter male/female split was 48/52, but since women have always voted at a higher rate then men in presidential elections, fairness requires using 2008 as the base number.
CNN exit polls show the female/male split among all voters was 53/47 in 2008. So a 6 point Obama lead among women is more than wiped out by the 53/40 lead Mitt Romney holds among men.
Voting enthusiasm rates for those under 50 average nine points less than those over 50, and Republicans of all ages are 8 points more likely to vote this year as per a recent Gallup poll. If things remain as they are, these numbers will spell landslide loss for Obama.
Whom to believe?
The internals of the S/M-D show a breakdown by Party identification that does not match the one that Rasmussen uses. Rasmussen a firm the has surveyed Party self identification for years reports this breakdown: 35% Republican 33% Democrat and 32% Independent. The S/M-D poll uses: Republican 32% Democrat 37% and Independent 30%. Basing its results on 4% more Democrats and 3% fewer Republicans and still showing Obama down three points to real trouble for Obama.
Another poll conducted during part of the same period was done by Dick Morris. His poll was six times larger has a .05% margin of error (S/M-D’s margin is 3%). Morris found Obama down 51/42 with 9 % undecided.
Undecided voters eventually break almost totally in favor of the challenger. If just half of them do Obama loses in a landslide.
To read more use these links:
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/upm-data/47513_ch_3.pdf
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153038/gop-slightly-ahead-voting-enthusiasm.aspx http://www.ronsachs.com/docs/sachs_masondixon_poll.pdf
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This sounds very encouraging! Obama still needs to be vetted and ousted beforehand.
I agree. Obama should have been properly vetted before he became president in 2008. I'nm not sure there is anyone with a backbone to stand up against him and demand credentials and a REAL birth certificate. We have to all vote this November otherwise this country will be totally ruined forever. Pray to God and vote are the only things we can do… Evil cannot prevail against goodness.The devil will NEVER win over GOD…. NEVER…… but we must do our part.
He can lose all points, as far as I am concerned. Send the Kenya born, Marxist, Muslim, lunatic back to Africa.
Dictators always step in it at the end. He is desperate and is now showing his hidden agenda and revealing his true face.
Don't get your hopes up too soon about Obama losing the election. The polls only ask questions of eligible living citizen voters. Obama still has the graveyards, baby nurseries, and illegal alien votes. A 3 point lead will not be enough to prevent Obama from stealing the election. We will need at least a 10 point victory to be able to counter the treachery.
Just remember that a second term for Obama is the end of our republic, because we are one Supreme Court Justice away from a Vote to dissolve the Union. Everything Obama wants will suddenly be Constitutional. Can you say "President-for-Life Obama?" or "Bill of Rights are unConstitutional"?
http://www.aim.org/special-report/the-lefts-natio… is a 15 page article with the last three pages links for documentation. This strategy is called a "deliberate, premeditated, comprehensive plan to win the 2012 presidential election at all costs…." If a majority of Americans are truly patriots, why in the world did they let obama in once, let alone elect him again. If not, we are in deep doo-doo.
Keep emailing congress to impeach this imposter! Now is not the time to slow down and relax!
This is good news for America. Unfortunately i would highly doubt that Obama wouldn't be afraid to pull a "False Flag" event (a fabricated event) to declare Martial Law and remain in power that way.
I can not stand suck azz Muslim Obama ……. After all Men & Women that died to make America best place in World to live some stink azz Muslim comes along and thinks he can F- Evry thing up real good for hard Working American's …Go to he// Obama
Three points is not much. That amount sure doesn't give me much comfort. And, what is wrong with women? First we are told that women are trending to Romney; now they are trending to Obama? I don't know what to believe.
If women, ALL AMERICAN women, do not COME TO THE DEFENSE OF AMERICA, then ALL THE HARD FOUGHT BATTLES FOR EQUALITY AND FREEDOMS FOR WOMEN WILL GO DOWN THE TOILET, THE SAME AS ALL OUR FREEDOMS WILL GO DOWN SAME TOILET! This DISEASE IS A FILTHY MU SLIME! MU SLIMES LIE TO ATTAIN THEIR GOAL OF WORLD DOMINATION! Anyone who knows anything about the FILTH THAT GOES BY THE NAME OF “islam”……..(I prefer I S L I M E) knows very well that they will do anything to get what they want, and that it is a MALE DOMINATED, key word being DOMINATED, satanic cult! It is NOT A “peaceful religion”, it is EVERYTHING BUT!!!!! A!!!!! PEACEFUL!!!!!!! ANYTHING!!! It knows no PEACE! It comes from the very bowels of HELL AND THE FATHER OF LIES, SATAN HIMSELF! He is probably laughing his rearend off at America and American’s stupidity in ALLOWING THIS FILTHY DISEASE TO STAY IN OFFICE, and even more laughter at the STUPIDITY OF OUR ACCEPTING mu SLIMES INTO OUR COUNTRY WITH NO ARGUMENTS! And, on top of that, ALLOWING THEM TO BUILD THEIR TERRORIST CAMPS RIGHT IN OUR MIDST! Those are called mosques! Each day, they call the “faithful SATAN worshipers to prayer”! They are not “praying” to GOD, they are praying to satan and all the imps in hell! If not, then peace would follow them everywhere they go. The only thing that follows these filthy diseases that are infecting America, is violence and trouble. And this evil, this violence and trouble DOES NOT COME FROM GOD ALMIGHTY! America is just one example of this, for America gives and gives to needy nations, we try to do good as much as is possible. Yes, we make mistakes, and we stick our noses into places that we have no business, but, our intentions are good. I speak of AMERICAN PEOPLE, not, NOT OUR WICKED AND EVIL GOVERNMENT! Our problem is not in we as a people, our PROBLEM is our government, those greedy, power hungry, lazy idiots that we elect, in the hopes that they will do what we send them to do, it is their fault that our nation gets dragged through the mud, and into wars, that if left to us to decide, we would not be involved in. No, we Americans are decent, hard working and mostly, honest people! And, it is going to be up to us to put a stop to what is now going on in Washington. We cannot let it remain in the hands of incompetant users, and liars and thieves. If we do this, it will be because WE ALLOWED IT! And that makes us as guilty as those who now sit in ease, and with our money, making their lives comfortable and easy. While we struggle just to eat and exist! No. We MUST NOT ALLOW THIS! And, by all that is holy, WE MUST NOT ALLOW THIS DISEASE IN OFFICE TO SPREAD ANY FARTHER THAN IT ALREADY HAS! This DISEASE IS CALLED ‘president” by some, and worse, by others. I cannot think of enough names or descriptions for this INFECTION, THIS FILTH, THIS INSULT! He insults us all each time he jumps upon stage and in front of his trusty teleprompter and flaps those lying, huge, purple lips! it is a wonder that we have not all fallen deathy ill from the foul wind that flows so easily from that pair of giant, purple infectious diseased lips! The lies alone are enough to kill a herd of buffalo! The foulness, the evil, the lies, the filth!!!!!!!!!! God save the United States of America, if He will! Until we amend our ways though, I fear that there is very little chance of that! One cannot mock God, and expect Him to “run to the rescue”, and America has mocked Him for decades!!!!!! And the worst mockery was ALLOWING THIS INCOMPETANT, THIS DISEASED FILTH TO INFECT OUR NATION WITH EVEN MORE OF HIS SLIMEY, MU SLIME EXCREMENT!!!!!!!