Last week, we got a report on a Mitchell poll from Michigan that has the New York Times swinging off the rafters. The Grey Lady got so apoplectic over the results because they showed Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied at 47/47 in Michigan.
Writing his rebuttal to this “outrage”, the Times’ Nate Silver cited another poll that upon closer review provides virtually the same results. Silver’s new best friends at the Lansing-based EPIC-MRA polling company say Obama leads 49/46 with a 2.6 +/- Margin of Error, which is all but the same thing. That the EPIC-MRApoll conducted in July showed Obama leading Romney in Michigan by 48%-42% didn’t seem significant enough for the Times to mention.
In his report, the EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn (yes that’s his real name) said Romney leads by 13 points among Independent voters just 48/47 among men and trailed by only 51/47 with women. Silver didn’t like the Mitchell poll’s decision to use an African American turnout of eight percent because it was too low, but liked EPIC-MRA setting African-American turnout at 10%.
Silver scoffed at Mitchell’s finding of Obama leading 73/26 among African Americans. Nevertheless, Silver’s favorite poll shows Obama winning African Americans by 91/7 and white voters standing with Romney 50/45.
The 2008 CNN exit polls showed Obama winning African-American Michiganders by a rate of 97/3 and losing white voters 51/47.
If Obama loses six points from his national African American vote and actually sees the turnout of black voters drop from 12% to 10% of the total vote, he is cooked. The 48/47 lead EPIC-MRA assigns to Romney with men is quite suspicious. Anyone who believes Barack Obama is now doing better with men than he did four years ago has to offer more proof of this than what a New York Times favorite polling company has given us.
If there was no “there there” in these dueling Michigan polls, why would Nate Solver be whining as loudly as he is? Is something happening in Michigan and in many other states across the nation?
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