Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore (Creative Commons)
Many conservatives and evangelicals are rabid fans of the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum. His candidacy will likely turn off the “middle of the road voter,” who may decide to just stay home and not vote.
Another intangible will become a major blow to Republicans wanting to maintain control of Congress and wrest control of the Senate from Harry Reid. It happened during the Goldwater Campaign against LBJ and is called the down stream effect, as many Republican candidates suffered dismal defeat.
Look no further than the Democratic candidacy of George McGovern. Although the country had completely rejected our presence in the Vietnam War (leading LBJ to forsake a second term), in a twist of fate, the majority of voters headed for the hills bringing out the” middle of the road” voter in droves. (Public disclosure: This reporter was an airhead then and also belonged to George’s party. Then suddenly he found his first clue and voted for Richard Nixon.)
McGovern lost to incumbent President Nixon in one of the most lopsided landslides in American political history, and, as they say, “The rest is all Watergate.”
In the most recent primaries, the reality is that Newt didn’t come in first but a close second, splitting the delegates in Mississippi and Alabama; thus, candidate Gingrich vows to stay in the race until it is completely over. By doing so, he becomes the conservative alternative to Rick Santorum.
Forget the polls, the political pundits, and the conventional wisdom that attempts to brainwash us. Newt Gingrich is positioned to win the GOP nomination, making Romney’s so-called inevitability rendered dead on arrival.
Heading into Louisiana, states with delegates totaling 1,141 will have decided – just short of the 1,144 needed for the nomination. It will be Louisiana that moves the process past the halfway mark with 34 states accounting for 1,187 delegates having voted. It’s like building an eleven story building, with Romney only standing on the fifth floor.
Splitting the votes three ways as the candidates did the other evening didn’t move Romney from the fifth floor of the metaphoric building, while both Gingrich and Santorum continued to pick up valuable votes leading to an ultimate show down like the O.K. Corral.
Should Romney receive 100% of the available delegates before Louisiana (an impossibility), he would still be short by 572 votes. With the proportional allocations that apply, Romney’s more likely 57 additional delegates would leave him with 35.6% of the votes.
Nobody is going anywhere, folks, with only one-third of the votes.
After the Louisiana vote on March 24th, there are primaries on April 3rd in the District of Columbia (winner take all without Santorum on the ballot), Maryland (a favorable state), and Wisconsin.
Following Louisiana, on April 24th, Senator Santorum faces a ‘must win’ in home state Pennsylvania (whose delegates remain unbound regardless of outcome). Santorum is unlikely to win, but even an enormous statewide win for him there, which seems unlikely given his massive Senate loss in the state in 2006, would not give him enough delegates to really contend with Romney. Other large contests remain the same in Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, and delegate-rich New York (95).
More states will vote until finally it’s over, with the Utah primary on June 26. Remember the old axiom “It ain’t over till the fat lady sings?” This reporter is not hearing the sound of Michele tuning up her vocal chords; thus, the nomination will not be decided until the fourth quarter in Utah where nobody is singing at the present time.
Make sure your weapon is loaded as the Gunfight at the O.K. corral will begin after the Utah primary in late June. Newt Gingrich will ultimately be seen by GOP primary voters as the next President of the United States of America.
Think about it; Newt is the man of bold ideas. With his Contract for America he took back the House of Representatives and became its Speaker, the first time the Democrats were kicked to the curb in forty years. Working with President William Jefferson Clinton, Newt’s bold leadership led Clinton supporters to claim that he created budget surpluses when factually had Newt not been directing traffic, Clinton would have been just another “tax and spend liberal” (this time with an evil wife.)
Are you hearing any fat women singing? Me neither.
That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it; I’m J.C., and I approve this message.
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