SHOCK POLLS: Trump Just Scored Two HUGE Wins In A Way That Could Redefine The Race

When the home team suffers an unexpected and startling defeat on its own field, fans and commentators will most likely take notice. And that’s just what’s happening today as the GOP front-runner for the 2016 presidential nomination, Donald Trump, scores a big win in a state where a rival or two could certainly be considered favorite sons.

The website Florida Politics reports on what it calls the “shock poll” that finds Trump leading Jeb Bush by a significant margin in Florida, the state where George W.’s younger brother served as a very popular governor from 1999-2007.

According to the just-released St. Pete Polls survey of more than 1900 likely GOP primary voters in the Sunshine State:

For the first time this year, Donald Trump tops a state poll of GOP presidential candidates in Florida.

A St. Pete Polls survey released on Wednesday shows the New York businessman with 26 percent support, with Jeb Bush in second place with 20 percent.

And what about Marco Rubio’s standing in the newly released survey of GOP voters? The senator from Florida is also found to be trailing Trump. Rubio places fourth in the new poll with 10 percent of the respondents backing him. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker came in third with 12 percent.

What many observers and analysts of presidential politics might find equally if not more surprising are the results of a different voter poll — one conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP). In this national survey, Donald Trump has a higher favorability rating than any of his GOP competitors among Latinos who were questioned July 20-21 about their candidate preferences.

According to MRC-TV coverage of this survey of 1,087 registered voters of Hispanic heritage, Trump scored a favorability rating of 34 percent. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, who one might think would hold an advantage with Latinos because of their backgrounds, were close behind with 30 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Jeb Bush, whose wife hails from Mexico and who frequently delivers campaign messages in fluent Spanish, won 31 percent of the Latino vote in this PPP poll.

You may recall that, as Western Journalism reported, Donald Trump has confidently said he would win the Latino vote should he become the nominee of the party. Trump has made that prediction several times, despite the fact that he continues to generate heated controversy over his campaign-launching remarks about dangerous, criminal aliens illegally entering the United States.

This post originally appeared on Western Journalism – Equipping You With The Truth

Trump Will Be Feeling Even More Confident Than Usual After This Big Announcement

Many might consider him the “shock jock” of presidential politics who continues to leave the Republican establishment as well as his GOP rivals in shock…and in the dust. Now, a brand new survey from one of the country’s most respected polling outfits will do nothing to lessen the disruptive Trump effect in the 2016 race for the White House, even as it does much to bolster the hopes of the billionaire businessman’s growing legion of supporters.

Rasmussen Reports has just released the results of its first national survey of likely Republican voters, showing Donald Trump well ahead of the rest of the crowded GOP field. Trump’s new nationwide numbers are especially significant as the first presidential debate looms on Fox News.

Trump, the GOP presidential hopeful who has dominated the headlines in recent weeks, is well ahead with 26% support among Republicans. Walker, the Wisconsin governor best known for standing up to labor unions in his state, runs second with 14% support. Bush, a former Florida governor and the third member of his family to seek the presidency, is the first choice of 10%.

As Western Journalism reported on Wednesday, Fox News has modified the rules of its August 6th debates — one to be held in prime time with the GOP candidates polling in the top 10, another earlier in the day with the remaining declared contenders for the White House getting somewhat less impactful TV exposure.

Also on Wednesday, we told you how Trump sent shock waves through the party establishment in the key state of Florida, as he was shown to be comfortably ahead of both former Gov. Jeb Bush and current Sen. Marco Rubio, two Sunshine State favorite sons. A separate poll showed the real estate mogul the favorite GOP contender among Latino voters, despite Rubio and Ted Cruz being of Latino heritage.

A new report on taxpayer-supported National Public Radio (NPR) questions whether Trump has staying power in the race, whether he will be able to build a strong and sustainable organization that can energize solid, long-lasting voter support.

The NPR report claims that, though he is staffing up and showing well in the polls of early primary states, Trump’s popularity seems to be built on “saying as many outrageous things as he can.” In other words, the NPR coverage suggests that Donald Trump’s audience ratings, if you will, come from his bold and brash “shock jock” persona.

“The easiest thing in the world is to tell a pollster, ‘I’m for that person,’ ” said Stuart Stevens, who was the chief strategist on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential bid. “The hardest thing is to get that person to vote.”

Still, with an impressive string of positive poll results in various states plus this new national survey from Rasmussen, the Trump train certainly seems to be gaining and maintaining a real head of steam from a significant segment of a steamed-up electorate.

This post originally appeared on Western Journalism – Equipping You With The Truth

Lib Paper Embarrassingly Contradicts Own Article While Trying To Take Down GOP Candidate

Some eagle-eyed Washington Post readers were confused Wednesday morning upon reading an article that seemed at odds with the publication’s own research. The article’s headline left little question regarding the current status of its subject: Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.

“Lagging in polls, Huckabee takes a leap of faith,” the print edition’s headline declared.

As Breitbart noted, an online version of the same story carried a different – and more accurate – headline: “Mike Huckabee, looking for a niche, woos blacks in GOP primaries.”

Writer Philip Rucker acknowledged Huckabee’s past success among black voters but relegated him to “the second tier” of GOP primary candidates.

Some, including Breitbart’s Alex Swoyer, wondered how describing Huckabee as a “second tier” candidate “lagging” in the polls squared with the newspaper’s recent poll placing the former Arkansas governor in the top quartile of a crowded 16-candidate field.

The Washington Post/ABC poll showed Donald Trump with a commanding lead and Huckabee in fourth place behind Jeb Bush and Scott Walker.

Regardless of Huckabee’s standing this early in the primary, however, Rucker ended his report on the candidate’s stop at a predominantly black South Carolina church by emphasizing the impact his message is having on audiences.

“I’m a Democrat,” local Nathaniel Pugh said, “but I might cross the line to vote for him. We can talk till we’re blue in the face, but until our hearts get right, there will be racism. For Gov. Huckabee to come into our little town and talk about this, that’s huge. He got my attention.”

Is the mainstream press trying to sabotage GOP candidates? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

This post originally appeared on Western Journalism – Equipping You With The Truth

How Will Donald Trump Do In A Meaningful California GOP Primary?

California’s presidential primary election comes at the very end of the selection process – June 7, 2016; and almost always, the national candidates have usually been chosen by then, rendering California’s presidential primary election meaningless. There have been efforts to move the primary to an earlier date, but the tinkering hasn’t seemed to take hold; and we are back to a late primary again this presidential election cycle. California’s Presidential primary has not always been meaningless, however. In 1968, Robert Kennedy won a hard fought Democratic primary election against sitting Vice-President Hubert Humphrey, but was assassinated by Sirhan Sirhan immediately after making his victory speech and uttering the words “On to Chicago” (the location of the Democratic Convention) at the old and long gone Ambassador Hotel on Wilshire Blvd., near downtown Los Angeles. In 1976, Ronald Reagan was not contested in California by sitting President Gerald Ford; but the primary was not meaningless because of the huge load of delegates Reagan won in the state’s primary (I was one of them), that when combined with a big victory in Texas’ winner-take-all primary, gave Reagan the encouragement to keep up the fight to the convention with just shy of the total number of delegates needed to win the nomination that year.

Today, California’s GOP presidential primary delegates are not exactly distributed “winner take all.” A small portion of the delegates to the Republican National Convention are selected by the candidate who wins the state as a whole, but the majority of delegates are selected by who wins in a Congressional District. And a Democratic-dominated Congressional District, such as Congressional Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s in San Francisco, will send as many delegates to the GOP convention as a Republican-dominated Congressional District, such as Congressional Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s district in Kern County.

I really wonder how Donald Trump will do in a California primary if the Republican Party has not settled on a nominee by next June. Trump has done well in the national polls over the last two weeks, despite what many pundits consider a number of gaffes, and has even taken the lead in a number of polls. His support looks like it may now be peaking at around 20% to 25% of the vote nationally – enough to be at or near the top in the current crowded GOP field of 16 candidates. But we don’t really know what Trump’s support is today in California. Last March, I tested opinions of likely voters in next year’s California Republican primary in my own poll; and Scott Walker walked away with the lead at 20%, followed by Ben Carson with 10.7% and Jeb Bush at 10.5%. But at that point, Trump hardly made a showing, with just less than 1% of the vote matched against 15 other potential candidates.

It seems likely that Trump has greatly lifted his support in California by now. But where is he today in the polls in the Golden State? And if the Republicans are still deadlocked with a load of candidates by next June, could California become the “make-or-break” state for the GOP?

All three major polling organizations in California certainly aren’t helping us with an answer. The USC/LA Times poll has not publicly published a survey of California voters since last April according to their website. The Public Policy Institute of California’s last survey was in May, and it did not include any questions about Presidential candidates. And the venerable Field Poll has not measured California GOP public opinion on a Presidential candidate since last May. Field’s results in May confirmed my own poll’s results two months earlier showing Trump with less than 1% support at that time, with Bush, Rubio and Walker in virtual ties at around 10-11% each.

I think testing Trump’s support in California matters, as I will explain below; and I also think the major polling agencies are intentionally soft-peddling GOP presidential polling not only because of California’s well-known blue state status and late primary, but also because they don’t want to contribute to the Trump road-show. My sense is that Trump has likely captured much of the imagination of California’s “tea-party” voters, those independents and Republicans who can sway around 25% of the GOP vote in a primary. This is the same voter bloc that gave tea-party oriented Gubernatorial candidate Tim Donnelly a third-place finish with 643,236 votes (14.8% of all candidates in the “open” primary) to Neel Kashkari’s 839,767 votes (19.4%) against Jerry Brown.

Tim Donnelly is no Donald Trump. Yet he really did make an impact capturing a strain of California voters, angered over illegal immigration, with a greatly under-funded campaign. Moreover, highly unreported is the fact that Donnelly was THE leading GOP vote-getter in the Governor’s primary in many counties throughout the state that will be sending delegates to the Republican National Convention. Donnelly did not best Kashkari in all the hard-core conservative southern California counties near the border with Mexico, but he won San Bernardino and Imperial counties; and he scored big in North State counties, around Republican Congressman Doug LaMalfa’s district where dissatisfaction with government runs high, namely Butte, Del Norte, Glenn, Lake, Lassen, Nevada, Trinity, Tehama, Siskiyou, Sierra, Shasta, Plumas, and Modoc. He drew to a tie in the central valley county of Merced, won nearby Mariposa, and took the central valley prize of Kern County (in Congressional Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s Congressional District no less); and Donnelly surprisingly even topped Kashkari in a clean-sweep of the state’s top wine country counties of Napa, Sonoma and Mendocino. Donnelly beat Kashkari, who was considered the GOP establishment’s candidate, in the central coast counties of San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz, and San Benito, the Bay Area counties of Alameda and Contra Costa and even won most of the handful of GOP voters in San Francisco, in Nancy Pelosi’s Congressional District!

Therefore, since California assigns its GOP delegates mostly by who wins in one of the state’s 53 Congressional districts, if Donald Trump was able to capture just the “Tim Donnelly” vote in California, scattered as it is in deep pockets throughout the state, it is quite possible that Trump could emerge from the primary with a huge cache and perhaps even the majority of delegates, even if he narrowly lost the statewide total to a Jeb Bush or Scott Walker. Imagine that number skyrocketing if Trump could put together a better campaign and message than Donnelly did, and with even just 25% of the vote sweep all the state’s delegates in a crowded field. Like Ronald Reagan did in 1976, Trump might surely be encouraged with a big late victory to go on to the Cleveland convention and see his campaign on to whatever ending it has in store there.

This commentary originally appeared at CaliforniaPoliticalReview.com.

The views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by WesternJournalism.com.

This post originally appeared on Western Journalism – Equipping You With The Truth

Oops: One Big Name Just Accidently Announced He’s Running For President

In an already crowded primary field, one expected Republican White House hopeful has yet to officially announce his candidacy. Expected to make an announcement next Monday, however, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker made what appeared to be an inadvertent social media confirmation Friday.

The Twitter post, which stated unequivocally that “Scott Walker is running for president,” was subsequently scrubbed from his profile; however, screenshots and comments remain.

Capture

While many saw the premature tweet as an accident, others believed Walker must have planned the unorthodox announcement.

“Walker does nothing accidentally,” one Twitter user wrote.

Another wondered if the post was “a mistake or strategy.”

For others, a Walker candidacy – regardless of how it is announced – is irrelevant.

One critic wrote that it “seems late in the game now” for him to announce, while another declared that he is “wasting his time anyway and ours come to think of it[.]”

Even as an unofficial candidate, however, Walker has performed well in several polls over the past several months. USA Today reported earlier in July that Walker led all other candidates in a survey of likely Iowa caucus participants. He received support from 18 percent of those polled, nearly double that of his closest competitors, Donald Trump and Ben Carson.

Do you support Scott Walker? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

This post originally appeared on Western Journalism – Equipping You With The Truth