Yesterday’s Rasmussen report plus yesterday’s Public Policy Polling (PPP) report provides us with a possible final margin of victory for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama. Rasmussen’s survey shows a 50/47 lead for Romney and PPP says Romney leads among Independents by 58/42.
Rasmussen’s Party registration breakdown shows there are 36.8% Republicans 34.2% Democrats and 29% Independents among each 100 registered voters. Rasmussen’s latest report reveals 89% of Democrats will vote for Obama and 90% of Republicans will vote for Romney. Using these baseline numbers, Romney gets 33.12 points from Republicans and an additional 16.82 from Independents for a total of 49.94%. CNN’s 2008 exit polls showed about 10% of each Party’s registered voters voted for the opposing candidate. This means an additional 3.24 for Romney for a total of 53.36%. Since there are several minor Parties adding up to about 1% that will likely take about an equal amount (.5%) from each side this reduces Romney to 52.86%.
Rasmussen says Obama will get 89% of Democrat votes. This gives him 30.438 and from PPP’s Independent numbers he will get another 12.18 for a total of 42.618, but subtracting .5% of the 1% minor Party vote gives Obama 42.118%. This accounts for all but 4.522% – the undecided. Splitting this vote (very generous) gives Obama 44.379%. Doing the same for Romney gives him 55.127% for a lead of 10.742%
N.B. using the generally accepted “undecided” rule that 80% go to the challenger gives Romney a possible 56.4776% to Obama’s 43.5226%. In either scenario it is not realistic to think that such a large popular vote would not result in a large Electoral College blowout for Romney.
Nevertheless, these assumptions are the most conservative interpretation of the data and do not take into account the large enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats that has been shown in every recent poll. While it may seem prudent to characterize “enthusiasm” as an intangible factor it proved decisive in the 2010 election which is regularly ignored in the popular media. In fact when enthusiasm is mentioned, in recognition of its power to change election results, it is mentioned deeply in a sea of words and certainly never highlighted. At the low end, the enthusiasm gap mentioned but not linked in a recent Michael Barone analysis is set at just 5 to 7 points. Notwithstanding this small edge Barone has predicted a Romney victory. Pew puts Republican enthusiasm at 14 points greater than Democrat enthusiasm.
Since African Americans were given the right to vote in 1870 by a Republican Congress and Administration, Black clergy have never advised their congregations not to vote. Not since 1908 have these ministers urged their members to vote for a Republican, yet this year a significant number of these men and women are doing both. Some are telling African Americans to vote for Republican Romney and a few are advising their folks not to vote at all. This situation is due to Obama’s unforced error of endorsing Gay “marriage.” In 2008 Obama got 95% of a 65% Black turnout. He is on his way to getting 85% of a 60% turnout this year. A recent SURVEYUSA poll in Ohio had Obama getting just 70% of the Black vote.
Since such records have been kept no Democrat has ever lost the Jewish vote, yet a recent report showed Jewish support for Obama at an average of 52% with four in the 40s. No Democrat has ever won with less than 68% of this small but bellwether bloc. Obama got 78% in 2008.
The Catholic Church formed an alliance with the Democrats in the 1930s and unfortunately has not paid much attention to what their Party of choice stood for in a very long time. This year that has changed. The smallest edge Romney has with Catholics is a +2, but that number includes anyone self-identifying as Catholic and not just adherent Catholics. Romney leads among adherent Catholics by 59/36. It is not a stretch to say this group will likely vote at a higher rate than the others because they are being urged to do so by the Church. No Democrat has ever won the presidency while losing the Catholic vote.
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