Barack Obama leads 46/44 in a new Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll. Well, that’s what they are saying anyway.
The TIPP poll shows that Mitt Romney has closed up a 7 point deficit since last month – oh how generous of them! Like so many other polls, however, this one attempts to balance a brick on a pin point. The problem is that there is nothing in TIPP’s accompanying internals that supports its headline numbers.
From the earliest days of this campaign, the truth of Barack Obama’s numbers has remained the same: he is not winning any group he lost and not doing better with any group he did win in 2008.
These numbers are black and white and not subject to interpretation.
The sampling errors that seem to be built-in in all of today’s polls are of course present here. TIPP used 36% Democrats, 31% Republicans, and 30% Independents. If we use the Rasmussen report on actual Party registrations, the numbers would be 36.8% Republican and 34.2% Democrat. The Independents are 30%, and they used 30%. These numbers add up to a sampling skew of 6.7%, but that doesn’t even factor in the 16 enthusiasm edge for Republicans reported by Gallup.
Taking each category of voters and comparing what TIPP is reporting today with what Obama got in 2008, we see that Obama is NOT doing better with any voting bloc – not even those he carried.
Among the largest blocs Obama won, here are the “then and now” numbers.
Women (53% of voters): Obama won 56/43 – a 13 point margin. Today, he is down to 51/40.
Men (47% of voters) were won by Obama 49/48; and today, he is losing 48/40.
Obama won African Americans 95/4; today, he is at 88%.
Obama won Jews with 78%; today, he is down to 59%.
Among young voters aged 18 – 44, Obama is winning 49/39; in 2008, he took 57% of their votes.
In 2008, Obama won Catholics 54/45; now he’s at 46/44%.
Among Democrats, he won 89/10. Today, he’s winning Democrats 85/9. Among Republicans, he lost 91/9 in 2008; today, he’s at 88/6.
In 2008, he won Independent voters 52/44. Today, he’s tied at 41/41.
And all of this gives him even a 2 point lead?
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