I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.
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Why Dick Morris was wrong. Easy – bad assumptions. He assumed that folks were playing by the rules – they weren't. Its that simple.
Yes, bad assumptions…..plus Dickie Boy's main goal is to sell books. He tell's you what you want to hear in order to give you a sales speil for a new book. It's all about money, not being correct.
Dick was wrong because he believed blacks and latinos would not come out to vote but morris should have realized they 're like animals give them free food,houseing and phones and you got them by the short hairs just like a pet dog.These animals voted for he frebees they get.
ya, and in so doing, Morris had a lot of hopes too high. And as a result, a lot of people were severely disappointed, and this is wrong on all levels. The old saying “never count your chickens before they hatch” has real meaning in regards to politics. And this is why I refused to beleive that Romney was going to win by a landslide, UNTIL he actually did! I know that people are not only fickle, but they are stupider than anyone wants to beleive. Who would have thought that after this DISASTER in office, sat on his skinny ugly, worthless ass, and watched those people in Benghazi be murdered so horribly, that any sane and caring American would vote for him, or trust him with the security of our nation, AGAIN!? Which is why I have come to the conclusion that those who did vote for this murdering bastard, are as guilty of those murders as their “hero” is guilty. Guilt by association. Anyone, ANY ONE who would approve of this murdering bastard is guilty of the same crimes as he is! Because to APPROVE of MURDERS such as those, is to have just as well MURDERED THEM YOURSELVES! And YOU VOTED AGAIN FOR THIS MURDERER! I hope you don’t sleep at night! I hope a storm of mega proportions hit your areas, and that you SUFFER THE TORTURES OF THE DAMNED FOR THIS ACT OF BETRAYAL OF THE NATION THAT HAS GIVEN YOU ALL SO MUCH! YOUR BETRAYAL IS UNFORGIVABLE, UNACCEPTABLE! If I am harsh here, then it is only what you deserve, and then MORE OF THE SAME AND WORSE!!!!!! SHAME ON EACH OF YOU! Maybe the next murders will be YOUR FAMILY MEMBERS! Done by THE MURDERING BASTARD THAT MURDERED THOSE PEOPLE IN BENGHAZI! DId any of you FOOLS ever think of that????????? Do you have sons or daughters, husbands of wives in the military? Well, you had better HOPE that something CHANGES before they are in HARM”S WAY AS THOSE PEOPLE IN BENGHAZI WERE!!!!!!!! Because the freak that you voted for will not LIFT ONE FINGER TO HELP THEM EITHER SHOULD THEY BE IN SUCH A SITUATION AS THOSE PEOPLE IN BENGHAZI!!!!!!!