Why The Democrats Ought To Be Scared If They Aren’t Already!

Obama Reacts Swiftly To Poll Numbers SC Why the Democrats ought to be scared if they aren’t already!

Something is happening among black voters, and if the Democrats aren’t scared, they ought to be.

There are now at least three separate polls from three different states showing Barack Obama with African American support in the 70s. More than that, an analysis of the black vote  in last spring’s Arkansas Democrat presidential primary raises doubts about the actual level of support he has among African Americans.  Obama won the Arkansas primary by 58/42, but when the votes of the 29 “significantly” black counties were tabulated, his lead shrunk by 8 points. In ten counties with black populations between 19% and 41%, Obama actually lost 38/62! Not all of this can be dismissed with “Well, it’s just a primary.”

Betrayal leading to trouble for Obama

In May, when Barack Obama double crossed African Americans with his most recent “evolution” on support for gay “marriage”, many in their community, especially the  black clergy, were stunned and outraged. The feeling of betrayal was so palpable that two separate polls, one in North Carolina by a Democrat operation and a second in Georgia by Gallup, found that 20% of black voters intend to vote for Mitt Romney.

Now three months later, a new poll of black voters from Michigan – a completely different part of the country- shows not only has the anger and frustration over Obama’s “evolution” not subsided, but it has actually strengthened slightly. The poll shows Obama getting the support of just 76% of Black Michiganders with 23% expressing their intent to vote for Mitt Romney. The Democrat- cheerleading media can ignore these polls, but a portion of the black clergy are working to reduce Obama’s support in the African American community even further.

The Rev. William Owens, who heads the Coalition of African American Pastors (CAAP), is the driving force behind a sustained campaign to hold Obama accountable for his insult to the Christian beliefs of millions of black voters. For the first time in anyone’s memory, black pastors are instructing their people not to vote for a Democrat – even a black Democrat – because they cannot accept his betrayal on the sanctity of one man to one woman marriage.

Those who wish to ignore these polls and fool themselves into thinking they are not legitimate do so at their own peril. They have  to ask themselves if they believe the silly poll from CBS saying Obama leads Romney among black voters 94/0 and therefore also believe gay marriage has not had the slightest effect on the willingness of blacks to vote for Obama; or they can believe that something very threatening is happening and they had better watch out.

They also have to ask themselves if Obama can afford even a small defection of these voters.

Photo credit: terrellaftermath

Follow Coach at twitter.com @KcoachcCoach

No related posts.

Is The “Youth Vote” Turning Away From Obama?

Barack Obama 6 SC Is The “Youth Vote” turning away from Obama?

The numbers surrounding the “youth vote” – where it is likely to go and how small it is likely to be – spell trouble for Barack Obama.

1)  In 2008, 51% of eligible voters aged 18 to 29 showed up to vote. They represented 18% of the total vote and supported Barack Obama over John McCain 66/34. Nevertheless, history tells us that when it actually comes down to showing up at the polls to vote, this group has a track record of falling short of their “declared” numbers. In other words, the “youth voters” can talk a good game but often don’t deliver. This is why the 58% who say they intend to vote, combined with new polling data on how they intend to vote, has to be alarming to Team Obama.

Another trip wire presented by the “youth vote” is the sizable aversion to affirmative action expressed by white 18 to 24 year olds.  Maybe as much as 1/3 of today’s “youth voters” were not caught up in the Obama “excitement” in 2008 as they were too young to cast a ballot. It is quite likely this subgroup will turn out to vote at a level somewhat higher than the overall 18 to 29 year old group. This is more bad news for Barack Obama.

A new Zogby poll done for the Service Employees International Union strongly suggests that if Obama actually does manage to win the votes of this group, his winning margin will be smaller, and the pool of votes they represent will most certainly be smaller. This year, both of these measurements will work against Obama as much as they worked for him in 2008.

The Zogby survey of likely voters concludes that Mitt Romney is now trailing Obama among young voters by just 49/41, which is a 17 point fall for the president and a 6 point gain for Romney over what John McCain was able to garner. The hidden benefit for Romney in these numbers is that they come from a survey done before Congressman Paul Ryan was tapped to be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee.

Given the surge of enthusiasm Americans have exhibited since Ryan’s selection, it is not a stretch to say that Romney’s “youth vote” numbers will climb; and in the zero sum game of counting votes, that climb will come at Obama’s expense.

Could Romney actually win the “youth vote”? Yes; he is already just 4 points away, and the Ryan effect is just beginning to take hold.

Follow Coach at twitter.com @KcoachcCoach

No related posts.